Greenhouse gas emission trends – IPPC report

• Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs and SF₆, ) have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004 (24% between 1990 and 2004), from 28.7 to 49 Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (GtCO₂-eq)² (see Figure SPM.1)

• With current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow by a range of 9.7 GtCO₂-eq to 36.7 GtCO₂-eq (25-90%) between 2000 and 2030⁹ (Box SPM.1 and Figure SPM.4). In these scenarios, fossil fuels are projected to maintain their dominant position in the global energy mix to 2030 and beyond. Hence CO₂ emissions between 2000 and 2030 from energy use are projected to grow 45 to 110% over that period.

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Figure SPM 1: Global Warming Potential (GWP) weighted global greenhouse gas emissions 1970-2004. 100 year GWPs from IPCC 1996 (SAR) were used to convert emissions to CO₂-eq. (cf. UNFCCC reporting guidelines). CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs and SF₆ from all sources are included.

The two CO₂ emission categories reflect CO₂ emissions from energy production and use (second from bottom) and from land use changes (third from the bottom) [Figure 1.1a].

Notes:

1. Other N₂O includes industrial processes, deforestation/savannah burning, waste water and waste incineration.

2. Other is CH₄ from industrial processes and savannah burning.

3. CO₂ emissions from decay (decomposition) of above ground biomass that remains after logging and deforestation and CO₂ from peat fires and decay of drained peat soils.

4. As well as traditional biomass use at 10% of total, assuming 90% is from sustainable biomass production. Corrected for 10% carbon of biomass that is assumed to remain as charcoal after combustion.

5. For large-scale forest and scrubland biomass burning averaged data for 1997-2002 based on Global Fire Emissions Data base satellite data.

6. Cement production and natural gas flaring.

7. Fossil fuel use includes emissions from feedstocks. A1b_a2

Figure SPM 2: Relative global development of Gross Domestic Product measured in PPP (GDP_ppp), Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES), CO₂ emissions (from fossil fuel burning, gas flaring and cement manufacturing) and Population (Pop). In addition, in dotted lines, the figure shows Income per capita (GDP_ppp/Pop), Energy Intensity (TPES/GDP_ppp), Carbon Intensity of energy supply (CO₂/TPES), and Emission Intensity of the economic production process (CO₂/GDP_ppp) for the period 1970-2004. [Figure 1.5]

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Figure SPM 3a: Year 2004 distribution of regional per capita GHG emissions (all Kyoto gases, including those from land-use) over the population of different country groupings. The percentages in the bars indicate a regions share in global GHG emissions [Figure 1.4a].

Figure SPM 3b: Year 2004 distribution of regional GHG emissions (all Kyoto gases, including those from land-use) per US$ of GDP_ppp over the GDP_ppp of different country groupings. The percentages in the bars indicate a regions share in global GHG emissions [Figure 1.4b].

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